New Seat Details - Kincardine and Angus North

This page shows the detail of the calculations performed to estimate the general election result for 2017 had the new boundaries for Kincardine and Angus North been in force at that time. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2017. This estimate is based on the recent local election results in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

In many cases, wards are divided between several old constituencies or between new constituencies. So the same ward may be shown more than once, but the electorate shown will reflect that ward sub-section.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are two problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Party	Implied 2017 Votes	Implied 2017 Share
CON	22,639	46.4%
SNP	17,336	35.5%
LAB	5,970	12.2%
LIB	2,823	5.8%
CON Majority	5,303	10.9%

Secondly, even though we now have the correct number of votes in the old seat, the party totals will not match the general election result. Some parties do better at the local election than the general election, and others do vice versa. We call these strong and weak parties respectively. The next step is to transfer votes from strong parties to weak parties. This is done by taking votes proportionally away from strong parties and putting them in a transfer pool. For instance if a party got 12,500 local votes, but only 10,000 general election votes, it will lose 20% over all the wards. These votes in each ward will be put in the ward's transfer pool and allocated to the weak parties. Weak parties will get votes transferred to them in proportion to the votes they need over the old seat. For instance, if two weak parties need 4,000 and 1,000 votes respectively, the first party will get 80% of each ward's transfer pool and the second party will get 20% of each ward's transfer pool. The transfer of votes between parties is done using the Electoral Calculus Transition Model.

Kincardine and Angus North: Map

List of old seats forming part of Kincardine and Angus North

Old seat: Aberdeenshire West and Kincardine

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Aberdeenshire West and Kincardine, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Aberdeenshire West and Kincardine				Transfer-adjusted Results
District	Ward	Electorate 2017	New Seat	CON Votes	LAB Votes	LIB Votes	UKIP Votes	Green Votes	SNP Votes	MIN Votes	OTH Votes	Total Votes
Aberdeenshire	Aboyne, Upper Deeside and Donside	8,759	Gordon and Deeside	3,240	509	588	0	0	1,986	0	0	6,323
Aberdeenshire	Banchory and Mid Deeside	8,576	Gordon and Deeside	3,259	522	541	0	0	1,859	0	0	6,181
Aberdeenshire	East Garioch	2,286	Gordon and Deeside	865	177	145	0	0	660	0	0	1,847
Aberdeenshire	Huntly, Strathbogie and Howe of Alford	3,755	Gordon and Deeside	1,089	231	211	0	0	896	0	0	2,427
Aberdeenshire	Mearns	11,428	Kincardine and Angus North	3,947	937	689	0	0	2,727	0	0	8,300
Aberdeenshire	North Kincardine	11,921	Kincardine and Angus North	3,287	1,308	703	0	0	2,588	0	0	7,886
Aberdeenshire	Stonehaven and Lower Deeside	10,743	Aberdeen South; Kincardine and Angus North	4,028	1,039	629	0	0	2,415	0	0	8,111
Aberdeenshire	West Garioch	3,253	Gordon and Deeside	1,062	177	228	0	0	932	0	0	2,399
Aberdeenshire	Westhill and District	11,628	Gordon and Deeside	3,926	807	727	0	0	2,691	0	0	8,151
	Total	72,349		24,703	5,707	4,461	0	0	16,754	0	0	51,625

The full details of these calculations are given on the Aberdeenshire West and Kincardine seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

Old seat: Angus

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Angus, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Angus				Transfer-adjusted Results
District	Ward	Electorate 2017	New Seat	CON Votes	LAB Votes	LIB Votes	UKIP Votes	Green Votes	SNP Votes	MIN Votes	OTH Votes	Total Votes
Angus	Arbroath East and Lunan	11,269	Angus South and Dundee East	3,050	1,416	210	0	0	2,946	0	0	7,622
Angus	Arbroath West and Letham	11,407	Angus South and Dundee East	3,293	1,020	229	0	0	2,695	0	0	7,237
Angus	Brechin and Edzell	8,504	Kincardine and Angus North	2,512	510	114	0	0	2,313	0	0	5,449
Angus	Forfar and District	11,377	Kincardine and Angus North	3,238	869	198	0	0	3,019	0	0	7,324
Angus	Kirriemuir and Dean	8,512	Kincardine and Angus North	2,784	378	169	0	0	1,779	0	0	5,110
Angus	Montrose and District	11,563	Kincardine and Angus North	3,272	1,040	388	0	0	2,752	0	0	7,452
	Total	62,632		18,149	5,233	1,308	0	0	15,504	0	0	40,194

The full details of these calculations are given on the Angus seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

New seat: Kincardine and Angus North

District	Ward	Electorate 2017	Old Seat	CON Votes	LAB Votes	LIB Votes	UKIP Votes	Green Votes	SNP Votes	MIN Votes	OTH Votes	Total Votes
New seat: Kincardine and Angus North
Aberdeenshire	Mearns	11,651	Aberdeenshire West and Kincardine	3,947	937	689	0	0	2,727	0	0	8,300
Aberdeenshire	North Kincardine	11,072	Aberdeenshire West and Kincardine	3,287	1,308	703	0	0	2,588	0	0	7,886
Aberdeenshire	Stonehaven and Lower Deeside	10,175	Aberdeenshire West and Kincardine	3,599	928	562	0	0	2,158	0	0	7,247
Angus	Brechin and Edzell	8,656	Angus	2,512	510	114	0	0	2,313	0	0	5,449
Angus	Forfar and District	11,633	Angus	3,238	869	198	0	0	3,019	0	0	7,324
Angus	Kirriemuir and Dean	8,115	Angus	2,784	378	169	0	0	1,779	0	0	5,110
Angus	Montrose and District	11,836	Angus	3,272	1,040	388	0	0	2,752	0	0	7,452
	Total	73,138		22,639	5,970	2,823	0	0	17,336	0	0	48,768

And these are the implied results for 2017 for the new seat of Kincardine and Angus North. Please note that the wards used are those of 2015 in order to be consistent with those used by the Boundary Commissions.

Implied MP at 2017:	Kirstene Hair (CON)
County/Area:	Tayside (Scotland)
Electorate:	73,138
Turnout:	66.7%

Kincardine and Angus North: New Boundaries 2018 Calculation

Kincardine and Angus North: Overview

Introduction